NIGERIA`S PRESIDENT-ELECT (Rtd) MAJOR GENERAL MUHAMMADU BUHARI
(An analysis by Tikum Mbah Azonga)
This
is a time of heightened excitement in the life of Nigeria as a nation. This is
because the nation`s people – and the world at large because of what that
country represents on the globe – are looking forward to swearing in their
newly elected president, Muhammadu Buhari, come the 29th of May
2015. Buhari won the race for President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in
an election exercise held last month and went on record as “the new candidate
who beat the incumbent Gooduck”.
This
particular election was one that the world sat up and noticed for several
reasons, one of which is that it concerned Nigeria, Black Africa`s most
populous country and one whose economy has grown so exponentially in recent
years that analysts say it has overtaken that of South Africa. Wikipedia the Free Encyclopedia says: “Nigeria
is often referred to as the "Giant of Africa", owing to its large
population and economy. With approximately 174 million inhabitants, Nigeria is
the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the
world. Nigeria has one of the largest populations
of youth in the world. The country is inhabited by over 500 ethnic
groups, of which the three largest are the Hausa,
Igbo
and Yoruba.
Regarding religion, Nigeria is divided roughly in half between Christians,
who live mostly in the southern and central parts of the country, and Muslims, concentrated
mostly in the northern and southwestern regions. A minority of the population
practice religions indigenous to Nigeria, such as those native to Igbo
and Yoruba peoples.”
The
same source states: “In 2014, Nigeria's economy (GDP) became the
largest in Africa, worth more than $500 billion, and overtook South Africa
to become the world's 21st largest economy. Furthermore, the debt-to-GDP ratio
is only 11 percent (8 percent below the 2012 ratio). By 2050, Nigeria is
expected to become one of the world's top 20 economies. The country's oil
reserves have played a major role in its growing wealth and influence. Nigeria
is considered to be an emerging market by the World Bank
and has been identified as a regional
power in Africa. It is also a member of the MINT group of countries, which are widely seen
as the globe's next `BRIC-like` economies. It is also listed among the `Next Eleven`
economies set to become among the biggest in the world. Nigeria is a member of
the Commonwealth of Nations, the African Union,
OPEC, and the United
Nations among other international organizations.”
The other reason for the country`s prominence
is that it`s presidency has been characterized by considerable instability
since the country achieved independence from Britain in 1960. In fact, the
country has had 13 presidents more or less, with some serving more than one
term. These have been Nnamdi Azikiwe who ruled from 1963-1966, Major-General
Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi (January 1966-July 1966), General Yakubu Gowan
(1966-1975), General Murtala Mohamed (1975-1976), Major-General Olusegun
Obasanjo (1976-1979),Shehu Shagari (1979-1983), Major-General Muhammadu Buhari
(1983-1985), General Ibrahim Babangida (1985-1993), Ernest Shonekan (August
1993- December 1993),General Sani Abacha (1993-1998), General Abdulsalami
Abubakar (1998-1999),Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007), Umaru Musa Yar`Ardua
(2007-2010),and Goodluck Jonathan (2010-29 May 2015). Of that number of
presidents, more than half have been military men. Significantly, seven of
those regime changes took place through military coups, some of them being
outright bloody.
The
recent election in which Buhari defeated Jonathan could be seen as one fought
on several opposing fronts, one of which
was the military (Buhari) versus the civilian (Jonathan) divide. Buhari was
also a Moslem Nigerian from the North while Jonathan was a christian Nigerian
from the South. Although there have been cleavages pitting the two peoples
against each other in the past, it is significant that this time around, those
who gave Buhari their vote went by far beyond just the traditional northern
divide. Perhaps to the latter`s credit, this time around, he hit the campaign
trail clad as a welcoming civilian rather than the intimidating army officer he
was previously. That disposition obviously helped to sway votes in his favour.
Buhari`s
recent victory has been after a long and hard road since he was ousted through
the military coup that brought General Ibrahim Babangida to power in 1983.
Before winning the March 2015 election, Buhari had run for the post thrice
unsuccessfully, in 2003, 2007 and 2011. This time around, he and his public
relations team worked hard and portrayed him in plain clothes as a civilian
candidate, very far from the military general he was before. Inasmuch as Buhari
sees himself as a `new look` president of Nigeria, the image that he created
during his first term in office as a military ruler will linger around for some
time.
When
he seized power in December 1983, I was in the final year of my studies at the
Ecole Supérieure des Traducteurs et Interprètes in Lille (France). When
in 1985 Bababngida ousted him to become the next military president of Nigeria,
I had left France, taught French at the Aylestone High School in London (United
Kingdom) on detachment by the French government, finished part time on-the-job
training as a journalist at Africa Magazine in London, and was now a staff
journalist at West Africa magazine, still in London.
Even so, I followed keenly the politics of
Nigeria. One reason was that even as a student in France, I was a subscriber to
West Africa magazine which was owned by the Daily Times newspaper of Nigeria
which was in turn owned by the Nigerian government. Although the job of the
magazine was to report on events in western Africa, it took it as an undeclared
duty to give pride of price to Nigeria in its stories. That was how I got to
know much about the government of Buhari, and later, that of Babangida, to name
those two.
Although
Buhari was in power for barely two years, he impacted the lives of many
Nigerians. It is noteworthy that in order to become president of Nigeria,
Buhari overthrew a three-year-old democratically elected government which
Shagari had led for barely three years. This was very telling because many
Nigerians had heaved a sigh of relief that at last, after so many military governments
in the past, they could finally have a civilian rule. Buhari and his supporters
justified the coup on the grounds that the administration was “hopelessly
corrupt”. The New York Times also quoted the officers involved in the coup as
saying that “a flawed
democracy was worse than no democracy at all". As was the case with such
coups in Africa, Buhari suspended the country`s constitution, which in a way
meant that it was back to square one for the political process.
On the economy,
Buhari introduced austerity measures which the Wikipedia Free Encyclopedia describes
thus: “the rebuilding included removing or
cutting back the excesses in national expenditure, obliterating or removing
completely corruption from the nation's social ethics, shifting from mainly
public sector employment to self-employment. Buhari also encouraged import
substitution industrialization based to a great extent on the use of local
materials and he tightened importation. However, Buhari's bid to re-balance
public finances by curbing imports led to many job losses and the closure of
businesses.” Buhari also broke ties with the International Monetary Fund, when
the Fund asked the government to devalue the Naira by 60%. However, the reforms
that Buhari instigated on his own were as rigorous as those required by the IMF,
and sometimes more rigorous than those of the IMF.”
Other measures taken to redress the economy
according to the same source included “a temporary ban on
recruiting federal public sector workers, raising of interest rates, halting capital
projects, prohibition of borrowing by State governments, 15 percent cut from
Shagari's 1983 Budget, realignment of import duties, reduction of the balance
of payment deficit by cutting imports, prioritizing the importation of raw
materials and spare parts that were needed for agriculture and industry. In
order to clean up society, Buhari instituted what he termed the War Against
Indiscipline, abbreviated as WAI and pronounced as “Why”. Through this
initiative, Nigerians were obliged to stand in neat queues when waiting for a
public service like catching the bus, buying petrol or going shopping. That was
not all: this was all done under the watchful eyes of military men in uniform
with whips ready to clamp down on any recalcitrant elements. Civil servants who
were late for work were punished to do frog jumps. Some 500 government
officials, businessmen and politicians were sent to prison because of their
alleged part in corrupt practices.
Still as part of the war against corruption,
Buhari ordered that the colour of the Nigerian Naira currency be changed. This
put Nigerians under a lot of pressure because he gave holders of the notes a
very limited period during which to change the notes. He introduced decrees
which curbed freedom of the press and expression and actually led to some
prominent journalists and the popular Afro beat singer Fela Ransome Kuti being
jailed. Students aged 17 and above who were caught cheating in examinations
were jailed for 21 years and persons found guilty of arson or counterfeiting
could get the death sentence. One of the results of these stringent measures
was that prices of commodities rose while living standards fell.
One good point about
the Buhari period was that despite the clamp down, public debate about the
state of Nigeria and even its future increased. I remember at the time at the
London office of West Africa magazine, such debates were heated especially when
“friends of the house”” paid us a visit. Some of those I remember visiting us were
the award winning literary writer Ben Okri, Prof. Kole Omotoso (Arabic and
French), Dr. Herbert Ekwe Ekwe, Dr. Yao Graham and many others. Members
in-house who contributed much to the debate were Kaye Whiteman who was General
Manager of the magazine, Onyema Ugochukwu who was its editor, an outside friend
of Onyema`s called “Dick”, Nii K. Bentsi Enchill who was Deputy Editor, and
other backbones of the publication such as A`Dobe Obe who later became editor
of the magazine and Tunde Agbabiaka who served as a long term external
collaborator. However, not all of them were from Nigeria as some were from Ghana. Tunde Agbabiaka was half Nigerian and
half Cameroonian. Discussions were either under the topic of “WAI” or what was
popularly referred to at the time as “trouble with Nigeria”.
Despite his
highhandedness, the BBC has commented that Buhari “retains a rare reputation for honesty among Nigeria's
politicians, both military and civilian”. He served as
Petroleum Minister under Olusegun Obasanjo and years later when he became
Chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) under the government of General Sani
Abacha, the New African magazine found him to have been so transparent in his
management of the outfit that it described the exercise as a “a rare success
story”. Former President Obasanjo said recently that Buhari "would not be a good economic manager, but will
be a strong, almost inflexible, and a courageous and firm leader".
Buhari sought a second coming to the
presidency of Nigeria and has got it. His victory has raised eyebrows for
several reasons, one of which is that he is a former military ruler who has
come back as a civilian. He is also a northern muslim succeeding a southern
Christian. He is equally the only elected president in the history of Nigeria
who has beaten the incumbent hands-down. Another element is that the share of
votes he obtained is nationwide, which is an indication of his popularity in
the country.
It remains to be seen to what extent he
will deliver the goods this time around. Obviously, one of the hardest nuts for
him to crack will be the quagmire of the Boko Haram insurgents who have wreaked
havoc in Nigeria and neighbouring countries and are still detaining hundreds of
innocent school girls they kidnapped over a year ago. All eyes are on Buhari to
see to what extent he will make his second coming one with a difference.
