IS BUHARI`S SECOND COMING BETTER?

NIGERIA`S PRESIDENT-ELECT (Rtd) MAJOR GENERAL MUHAMMADU BUHARI

(An analysis by Tikum Mbah Azonga)

This is a time of heightened excitement in the life of Nigeria as a nation. This is because the nation`s people – and the world at large because of what that country represents on the globe – are looking forward to swearing in their newly elected president, Muhammadu Buhari, come the 29^th of May 2015. Buhari won the race for President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in an election exercise held last month and went on record as “the new candidate who beat the incumbent Gooduck”.

This particular election was one that the world sat up and noticed for several reasons, one of which is that it concerned Nigeria, Black Africa`s most populous country and one whose economy has grown so exponentially in recent years that analysts say it has overtaken that of South Africa.  Wikipedia the Free Encyclopedia says: “Nigeria is often referred to as the "Giant of Africa", owing to its large population and economy. With approximately 174 million inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has one of the largest populations of youth in the world. The country is inhabited by over 500 ethnic groups, of which the three largest are the Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba. Regarding religion, Nigeria is divided roughly in half between Christians, who live mostly in the southern and central parts of the country, and Muslims, concentrated mostly in the northern and southwestern regions. A minority of the population practice religions indigenous to Nigeria, such as those native to Igbo and Yoruba peoples.”

The same source states:  “In 2014, Nigeria's economy (GDP) became the largest in Africa, worth more than $500 billion, and overtook South Africa to become the world's 21st largest economy. Furthermore, the debt-to-GDP ratio is only 11 percent (8 percent below the 2012 ratio). By 2050, Nigeria is expected to become one of the world's top 20 economies. The country's oil reserves have played a major role in its growing wealth and influence. Nigeria is considered to be an emerging market by the World Bank and has been identified as a regional power in Africa. It is also a member of the MINT group of countries, which are widely seen as the globe's next `BRIC-like` economies. It is also listed among the `Next Eleven` economies set to become among the biggest in the world. Nigeria is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations, the African Union, OPEC, and the United Nations among other international organizations.”

 The other reason for the country`s prominence is that it`s presidency has been characterized by considerable instability since the country achieved independence from Britain in 1960. In fact, the country has had 13 presidents more or less, with some serving more than one term. These have been Nnamdi Azikiwe who ruled from 1963-1966, Major-General Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi (January 1966-July 1966), General Yakubu Gowan (1966-1975), General Murtala Mohamed (1975-1976), Major-General Olusegun Obasanjo (1976-1979),Shehu Shagari (1979-1983), Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (1983-1985), General Ibrahim Babangida (1985-1993), Ernest Shonekan (August 1993- December 1993),General Sani Abacha (1993-1998), General Abdulsalami Abubakar (1998-1999),Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007), Umaru Musa Yar`Ardua (2007-2010),and Goodluck Jonathan (2010-29 May 2015). Of that number of presidents, more than half have been military men. Significantly, seven of those regime changes took place through military coups, some of them being outright bloody.

The recent election in which Buhari defeated Jonathan could be seen as one fought on several opposing fronts,  one of which was the military (Buhari) versus the civilian (Jonathan) divide. Buhari was also a Moslem Nigerian from the North while Jonathan was a christian Nigerian from the South. Although there have been cleavages pitting the two peoples against each other in the past, it is significant that this time around, those who gave Buhari their vote went by far beyond just the traditional northern divide. Perhaps to the latter`s credit, this time around, he hit the campaign trail clad as a welcoming civilian rather than the intimidating army officer he was previously. That disposition obviously helped to sway votes in his favour.

Buhari`s recent victory has been after a long and hard road since he was ousted through the military coup that brought General Ibrahim Babangida to power in 1983. Before winning the March 2015 election, Buhari had run for the post thrice unsuccessfully, in 2003, 2007 and 2011. This time around, he and his public relations team worked hard and portrayed him in plain clothes as a civilian candidate, very far from the military general he was before. Inasmuch as Buhari sees himself as a `new look` president of Nigeria, the image that he created during his first term in office as a military ruler will linger around for some time.

When he seized power in December 1983, I was in the final year of my studies at the Ecole Supérieure des Traducteurs et Interprètes in Lille (France). When in 1985 Bababngida ousted him to become the next military president of Nigeria, I had left France, taught French at the Aylestone High School in London (United Kingdom) on detachment by the French government, finished part time on-the-job training as a journalist at Africa Magazine in London, and was now a staff journalist at West Africa magazine, still in London.

 Even so, I followed keenly the politics of Nigeria. One reason was that even as a student in France, I was a subscriber to West Africa magazine which was owned by the Daily Times newspaper of Nigeria which was in turn owned by the Nigerian government. Although the job of the magazine was to report on events in western Africa, it took it as an undeclared duty to give pride of price to Nigeria in its stories. That was how I got to know much about the government of Buhari, and later, that of Babangida, to name those two.

Although Buhari was in power for barely two years, he impacted the lives of many Nigerians. It is noteworthy that in order to become president of Nigeria, Buhari overthrew a three-year-old democratically elected government which Shagari had led for barely three years. This was very telling because many Nigerians had heaved a sigh of relief that at last, after so many military governments in the past, they could finally have a civilian rule. Buhari and his supporters justified the coup on the grounds that the administration was “hopelessly corrupt”. The New York Times also quoted the officers involved in the coup as saying that “a flawed democracy was worse than no democracy at all". As was the case with such coups in Africa, Buhari suspended the country`s constitution, which in a way meant that it was back to square one for the political process.

On the economy, Buhari introduced austerity measures which the Wikipedia Free Encyclopedia describes thus: “the rebuilding included removing or cutting back the excesses in national expenditure, obliterating or removing completely corruption from the nation's social ethics, shifting from mainly public sector employment to self-employment. Buhari also encouraged import substitution industrialization based to a great extent on the use of local materials and he tightened importation. However, Buhari's bid to re-balance public finances by curbing imports led to many job losses and the closure of businesses.” Buhari also broke ties with the International Monetary Fund, when the Fund asked the government to devalue the Naira by 60%. However, the reforms that Buhari instigated on his own were as rigorous as those required by the IMF, and sometimes more rigorous than those of the IMF.”

Other measures taken to redress the economy according to the same source included “a temporary ban on recruiting federal public sector workers, raising of interest rates, halting capital projects, prohibition of borrowing by State governments, 15 percent cut from Shagari's 1983 Budget, realignment of import duties, reduction of the balance of payment deficit by cutting imports, prioritizing the importation of raw materials and spare parts that were needed for agriculture and industry. In order to clean up society, Buhari instituted what he termed the War Against Indiscipline, abbreviated as WAI and pronounced as “Why”. Through this initiative, Nigerians were obliged to stand in neat queues when waiting for a public service like catching the bus, buying petrol or going shopping. That was not all: this was all done under the watchful eyes of military men in uniform with whips ready to clamp down on any recalcitrant elements. Civil servants who were late for work were punished to do frog jumps. Some 500 government officials, businessmen and politicians were sent to prison because of their alleged part in corrupt practices.

 Still as part of the war against corruption, Buhari ordered that the colour of the Nigerian Naira currency be changed. This put Nigerians under a lot of pressure because he gave holders of the notes a very limited period during which to change the notes. He introduced decrees which curbed freedom of the press and expression and actually led to some prominent journalists and the popular Afro beat singer Fela Ransome Kuti being jailed. Students aged 17 and above who were caught cheating in examinations were jailed for 21 years and persons found guilty of arson or counterfeiting could get the death sentence. One of the results of these stringent measures was that prices of commodities rose while living standards fell.

One good point about the Buhari period was that despite the clamp down, public debate about the state of Nigeria and even its future increased. I remember at the time at the London office of West Africa magazine, such debates were heated especially when “friends of the house”” paid us a visit. Some of those I remember visiting us were the award winning literary writer Ben Okri, Prof. Kole Omotoso (Arabic and French), Dr. Herbert Ekwe Ekwe, Dr. Yao Graham and many others. Members in-house who contributed much to the debate were Kaye Whiteman who was General Manager of the magazine, Onyema Ugochukwu who was its editor, an outside friend of Onyema`s called “Dick”, Nii K. Bentsi Enchill who was Deputy Editor, and other backbones of the publication such as A`Dobe Obe who later became editor of the magazine and Tunde Agbabiaka who served as a long term external collaborator. However, not all of them were from Nigeria as some were from  Ghana. Tunde Agbabiaka was half Nigerian and half Cameroonian. Discussions were either under the topic of “WAI” or what was popularly referred to at the time as “trouble with Nigeria”.

Despite his highhandedness, the BBC has commented that Buhari “retains a rare reputation for honesty among Nigeria's politicians, both military and civilian”. He served as Petroleum Minister under Olusegun Obasanjo and years later when he became Chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) under the government of General Sani Abacha, the New African magazine found him to have been so transparent in his management of the outfit that it described the exercise as a “a rare success story”. Former President Obasanjo said recently that Buhari "would not be a good economic manager, but will be a strong, almost inflexible, and a courageous and firm leader".

Buhari sought a second coming to the presidency of Nigeria and has got it. His victory has raised eyebrows for several reasons, one of which is that he is a former military ruler who has come back as a civilian. He is also a northern muslim succeeding a southern Christian. He is equally the only elected president in the history of Nigeria who has beaten the incumbent hands-down. Another element is that the share of votes he obtained is nationwide, which is an indication of his popularity in the country.

It remains to be seen to what extent he will deliver the goods this time around. Obviously, one of the hardest nuts for him to crack will be the quagmire of the Boko Haram insurgents who have wreaked havoc in Nigeria and neighbouring countries and are still detaining hundreds of innocent school girls they kidnapped over a year ago. All eyes are on Buhari to see to what extent he will make his second coming one with a difference.