Nonetheless, although at the time of its creation back then, the popularity of the SDF and that of its national chairman, Ni John Fru Ndi, were at an all-time high, the crescendo or honeymoon was soon followed by dwindling fortunes. The SDF lost control of members in both the councils and the National Assembly. The departed members either died or broke away voluntarily or were excluded. Some formed rival parties, thus contributing in eroding the support base of the party. Some even defected and joined Paul Biya`s CPDM.
By every stretch of the imagination,
the forthcoming twin elections are therefore a golden opportunity for the SDF
to show the world that it has what it takes not just to bounce back but
actually beat the CPDM. If once again the SDF misses the boat this time around,
then it may be quite a while before it picks up the pieces and rises to its
feet again. Such a disaster would also expose the party to the ridiculous risk
of appearing like a lame duck and a toothless dog.
Of particular interest in the
outcome of the election will be the role of Bello Bouba Maigari`s party, the
UNDP. Although the party is in the opposition, it has for years played a
dubious function as an ally to the ruling CPDM. In fact, the UNDP suddenly shot
into the limelight some years ago when the SDF boycotted elections in which the
UNDP broke ranks and participated. As a result, Paul Biya credited Bello Bouba
with inclusion in government, making him a cabinet minister and at the same
time, giving further cabinet portfolios to other members of his party. Today,
Bello Bouba is a minister of state, which is a senior minister. However, to
Bello Bouba`s discredit, the role of his party in alliance with the CPDM has
been confusing and even treacherous, largely because the UNDP has today
appeared to be nothing more than “his master`s voice”. It is simply viewed as a
mere appendage of the CPDM and therefore lacking in strength of character, stamina,
conviction and influence.
A closer look at the political stakes leads to the conclusion that if Paul Biya is maintaining the alliance with Bello Bouba, it is simply out of sympathy, rather than necessity. The truth is that when Biya struck the deal with Bello, he needed to ensure a majority in the National Assembly. That was then and this is now, when Biya enjoys an absolute majority. The question now is whether Biya will still maintain Bouba in the cabinet reshuffle that is likely to follow the twin elections.
That question and many others will
be answered by the result of the election. All eyes are therefore on the 30th
of September 2013.
THE END
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